Saint-Petersburg Forestry Research Institute Deputy Director took part in a workshop “Stop the Warming III: Analysis by Regions, Reasons for Ensuring Stability to Climatic Variations”

On 13 March 2014 the workshop on potential strengthening for regional scientists in the field of scientific basis for “Stop the Warming: Analysis by Regions (BVSA/LAK/ECA), Reasons for Ensuring Stability to Climatic Variations” concluded the work in Potsdam, Germany. One of the experts of the workshop was Artyom Konstantinov, Saint-Petersburg Forestry Research Institute Deputy Director for Science. The event was arranged by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research under the World Bank order.

This is the third report submitted by the World Bank in the publication series under the joint title “Stop the warming”.Biophysical impact of climatic variation under different scenarios of air temperature rising (0.8°C, 2°C, and 4°C) and in particular consequences for development from scientifically substantiated point of view for the purpose of awareness threshold on vulnerability to climatic variations in the regions which deserve special attention are examined in this paper as well as in the second one.

Using five general circulation models (GCM) of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) scientists presented updated and sharp projections for temperature variations and amount of precipitation, critically high temperature indices, aridity indices and also sea level variation. Afterwards these forecasts were used to resolve problems related to the action scenarios in regards to the scheduling, scoping, determination of potential crucial moments and also for uncertainties and establishing significance level and probability of these variations.

In the course of regional analysis great attention has been paid to the issues of the Russia forestry management including guidance papers, scientific modeling methods and data, on the basis of which climate change periods, occurrence time and still not undetermined consequences may be designed. Paper tentative conclusions have been specified with active participation of regional scientists including Saint-Petersburg Forestry Research Institute Deputy Director for Science Artyom Konstantinov.